23 Aug 2025
THE LIGHT
Today, the Swedish Migration Board's new forecast is being published, with calculations and assumptions for the development in the area of migration during the years 2025 to 2028.
As for asylum seekers, approximately 3,750 applications for asylum were received in Sweden during the period January to June of this year. This is around 30 percent fewer than the corresponding period in 2024. The decrease is primarily due to the new statute of limitations rules that came into effect on April 1.* But even among asylum seekers without a previous asylum case, the trend is downward.
– Sweden's attractiveness as a recipient country continues to decline in line with the political reforms that have been implemented in the area of migration. The EU's Asylum and Migration Pact is also expected to lead to fewer asylum seekers in the coming years, says Maria Mindhammar.
In the new forecast, the Swedish Migration Board estimates that approximately 6,500 people will seek asylum in Sweden this year, which is 500 people fewer than the assumption in the previous forecast. In 2026, the number of asylum seekers is estimated to be around 5,500 – a decrease of 1,300 people compared to the previous assessment. These figures do not include people from Ukraine who are applying for, or who have previously had, temporary protection under the Migration Directive.
Migration Directive extended until 2027
Regarding the Migration Directive, the EU has decided to extend temporary protection until 4 March 2027. The Swedish Migration Board's main scenario is, as in the previous forecast, that around 9,000 people seek protection under the Migration Directive in Sweden this year. For 2026, the main scenario is that 7,000 people seek temporary protection.
– Our main scenarios assume that the war in Ukraine continues with approximately the same intensity and geographical spread as today. But the situation is unpredictable and we also take into account that the conflict could develop in a way that leads to more or fewer asylum seekers in Sweden, says Eric Ramstedt, Planning Director at the Swedish Migration Board.
Unless otherwise decided, temporary protection under the Mass Displacement Directive will end in March 2027. Around 45,000 people are then estimated to be in Sweden with temporary protection. In the forecast, the Swedish Migration Board assumes that around 20 percent of them will return to Ukraine. The majority, around 36,000 people, are estimated to want to stay and apply for a residence permit on another basis.
– The consequence of this would be a sharp increase in the number of applications in other types of cases, especially asylum and the labor market, says Eric Ramstedt.
The effects of an extended Mass Displacement Directive are the main reason for the changed calculations in the July forecast, compared to the forecast the authority provided in April.
Fewer decided citizenship cases
The assessment of the number of decided citizenship cases is reduced to approximately 55,000 for the years 2025 and 2026 – a decrease of approximately 10,000 cases per year compared to previous assumptions. The reason is that the Migration Board has introduced additional security-enhancing measures in the processing of citizenship, which means that each case takes longer. In accordance with the recommendations of, among others, the National Audit Office, the Migration Board has also taken measures to ensure that those who have waited the longest will receive a decision on their case.
– The forecast for decided citizenship cases is uncertain and may be revised again when we know more about how the changed working methods affect the pace of decision-making. Furthermore, the forecast does not take into account the changes to the citizenship legislation that are intended to come into force in June next year**, says Eric Ramstedt.
Lower administrative appropriations from 2027
In the latest budget bill, the government has announced that the Swedish Migration Board will be allocated an administrative appropriation for 2027 that is SEK 409 million lower than in previous years. If temporary protection under the Mass Displacement Directive ends that year, a sharp increase in the number of applications for both asylum and work permits is expected. More asylum seekers also mean an increased need for resources in the reception.
– A lower administrative appropriation in 2027 at the same time as the number of applications increases means that we will have longer processing times in virtually all categories of cases, says Eric Ramstedt.
8,800 expected to return
The assessment of the number of people who voluntarily return is unchanged from the previous forecast. A total of 8,800 people are expected to return in 2025, an increase of around 500 compared to the previous year. Of these, 3,800 people are expected to return after their asylum application was rejected and 5,000 people with a residence permit that has expired.
The assumptions about how many will return voluntarily in the years to come are affected by, among other things, the extension of the Mass Displacement Directive, a reduced influx of asylum cases and a lower administrative budget.
– Return is a priority area for the Swedish Migration Board. How many choose to return is largely determined by external factors, but we are also working actively to ensure that more of those who receive a decision on refusal of entry or expulsion comply with the decision, says Maria Mindhammar.
* On 1 April 2025, the changed statute of limitations came into effect